Climate summit outcome hard to predict, Luxembourg's Wilmes says

Interview: Luxembourg Times (Kabir Agarwal)

Luxembourg Times: Luxembourg is hosting a national pavilion at COP30 for the first time. What message are you sending, and what would count as success by the end of the summit?

Serge Wilmes: Previously, Luxembourg shared a pavilion with the Benelux and the European Investment Bank (EIB), but this collaboration has now shifted to shared office space.

At COP29 in Baku, Luxembourg stood out as one of the few countries worldwide to announce a significant increase in international climate finance - raising its commitment from 220 million for 2021-2025 to 320 million for 2026-2030. In light of this enhanced commitment, Luxembourg considers it important to maintain a pavilion presence at COP30.

The pavilion will serve as a platform to showcase Luxembourg's climate leadership, foster international cooperation, host a full programme of side events, and generate interest in Luxembourg's initiatives and partnerships.

Luxembourg Times: The EU has still not submitted its updated NDC. Why has the process stalled, in your view? [The EU filed its NDC after questions were initially submitted to the minister]

Serge Wilmes: Following extensive negotiations, EU ministers adopted the European Union's nationally determined contribution (NDC) during the extraordinary Council held on 4-5 November. This document, which outlines the European Union's climate ambition for 2035, has since been submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat.

Luxembourg, however, regrets that the finally adopted NDC includes a range for the indicative target for 2035, with a reduction in greenhouse gases - between 66.25% and 72.5%. For Luxembourg, only the upper end of this range, 72.5%, is credible. This figure reflects a linear trajectory between the 2030 and 2040 targets.

Luxembourg Times: The 2040 target (-90% vs 1990) has been adopted with flexibilities like foreign carbon credits and a delay to the new carbon market. Do you support this compromise? Is it ambitious enough in your view?

Serge Wilmes: Luxembourg strongly supports the adoption of the ambitious, legally binding target of a 90% reduction - a goal we have consistently supported since the beginning of negotiations.

However, we regret that the compromise included an increase in the permitted use of international credits to 5%.

Luxembourg did not advocate the inclusion of carbon credits, as we firmly consider the target is achievable through a domestic level with emissions reductions within the European Union.

Luxembourg Times: Why did the EU process stall for months before this deal, and what changed in the final hours to unlock agreement?

Serge Wilmes: The 27 European member states face diverse economic and geographic realities. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions will transform the economy by moving away from fossil fuels. A broader discussion was needed - beyond what the Environment Council could accommodate.

As a result, the topic of a competitive green transition was placed on the agenda of the European Council meeting on 23 October 2025. The guidance provided by heads of state and government paved the way for an agreement at the extraordinary Environment Council on 4 November.

This agreement included a revision of the European Climate Law, establishing a legally binding target of a 90% emissions reduction by 2040, as well as the EU' s Nationally Determined Contributions for 2035.

Luxembourg Times: Luxembourg's per-capita emissions are among the highest globally and above the EU average. In the last few years, while there has been some progress on cutting emissions, they remain high in industries like energy, manufacturing and construction. What specific measures is the government planning to implement to reduce them?

Serge Wilmes: Luxembourg reached its greenhouse gas emission reduction target in 2024 for the fifth consecutive year. The latest figures, published in July, show a continuous decline in emissions and demonstrate compliance with the emission budget set for 2024. Compared to the reference year 2005, emissions have decreased by 33%.

The updated integrated national energy and climate plan [PNEC, editor's note], published in July 2024, sets out over 200 measures across all sectors aimed at achieving the climate and energy targets by 2030.

Luxembourg Times: Will Luxembourg announce a new climate-finance envelope for 2026-2030, with a defined adaptation share and a dedicated contribution to the Loss & Damage Fund?

Serge Wilmes: At COP 29 in Baku, Luxembourg was among the few countries to announce a substantial increase in international climate finance - raising its commitment from 220 million for the period 2021-2025 to 320 million for the period 2026-2030.

To ensure this funding delivers maximum impact, we are currently developing a climate-nexus investment programme. The programme will specify the different investment streams and focus areas. It is expected to be finalised by early next year, and further details will be shared at that time.

Luxembourg Times: How can Luxembourg leverage its financial centre to mobilise private capital for adaptation and nature-based solutions - not just mitigation?

Serge Wilmes: Luxembourg is currently analysing ways to further leverage private finance, both through its financial centre and beyond. This effort will be an important pillar of the upcoming Climate Nexus Investment Program.

One concrete example is the "Rio Changemakers" initiative, which Luxembourg will officially launch at COP3o.

This innovative platform aims to connect projects, funds and investors, facilitating the financing and implementation of projects that have a real impact on communities and the planet. To date, around 30 stakeholders - including financial institutions, national governments, civil society, international organisations, and local initiatives - have responded to the call.

Luxembourg Times: How will you judge success or failure at COP 3o?

Serge Wilmes: Given the current geopolitical context and the requirement for consensus in all formal decisions, the outcome of COP3o is particularly difficult to predict.

A global assessment of the submitted Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and implemented policies worldwide shows that we are not on a trajectory compatible with the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement.

In this light, we expect COP3o to deliver a strong political signal urging all parties to implement policies that align with their NDCs. We also anticipate calls for parties who have not yet submitted an NDC to do so, and for those who have already submitted one to consider strengthening it to put us on a path compatible with the 1.5°C target.