- Seul le discours prononcé fait foi -
Dear Commissioner Almunia,
Dear Mr Carré,
Dear Mrs Bohata,
Ladies and Gentlemen,
As politicians and policymakers at the national and the European level, we have a voracious appetite for statistics.
We crucially rely on high-frequency, timely and accurate statistics as input for our political decision-making processes.
In certain areas, the influence of statistics over politics and policies goes well beyond meeting the demands for data. I am thinking in particular about fiscal policy, where monitoring is carried out on the basis of budgetary statistics prepared in accordance with the rules and concepts of ESA95 or about statistics on inflation and their implications for monetary policy.
Yet, one may wonder if the wealth of statistical information which is nowadays available has really improved the policymaking and has really led to a better general understanding of the impact and the consequences of policies.
This problem was already recognized by Albert Einstein, as he understood perfectly well that "information is not knowledge".
The perceived asymmetry between information on the one hand, and knowledge or a better understanding on the other hand does not only pertain to politicians and policymakers. Indeed, it is a problem that concerns our society as a whole.
Since becoming President of the Eurogroup in January 2005, I have turned into something like a roaming ambassador who is traveling across the face of the earth, praising the benefits of the single currency. My arguments are sound and I can rely on solid statistical support. In fact, since the launch of the single currency, some 15 million additional jobs have been created in the euro area. Unemployment has fallen to the lowest level in decades. Inflation has been low and stable. Budget deficits have decreased and many member states have made significant progress towards the long term sustainability of their public finances. And last but not least, after a lackluster performance during the early years of the current decade, economic growth has rebounded strongly and is proving to be resilient in the face of adverse shocks and a worsening balance of risks.
So I believe that I have a pretty strong case - but the citizens of Europe are not convinced.
In fact, according to a Eurobarometer survey carried out exactly one year ago, i.e. at a time when many of the facts presented above were already true, a full 81% of Europeans associated the euro with higher prices. Less than half of the citizens in the euro area believed that overall, the introduction of the euro has been advantageous. The proportion of respondents who believed that overall, the introduction of the euro had been disadvantageous was highest in Italy and Greece - arguably the two countries that have benefited the most from the low inflation and low interest rates brought about by EMU.
From this experience, I draw two implications. One set of implications concerns your world, i.e. the world of statistics. The other set of implications concerns my world, i.e. the world of politics.
First, with respect to statistics:
If we are measuring one thing and our citizens understand or feel something completely different, I must address the question whether the changing structure of our economies and our societies is adequately reflected in our statistics. Let me return for one second to the example that I used a few moments ago. If the large majority of our citizens feel that prices have increased much more rapidly after the introduction of the euro than before the introduction of the euro although our price indices report exactly the opposite, then this raises a number of questions. Maybe people are myopic and ill-informed. May be many people do not realize that many "nominal" price increases are offset by qualitative improvements, leading to a constant or even a lower "effective" price. But maybe the representative basket of goods and services underlying the consumer price index is disconnected from the rapidly changing tastes and consumption patterns of the real consumer. More generally, if we observe a discrepancy between what we measure and between what we observe, we must thoroughly investigate the root causes of the potential misconception and critically examine the statistical concepts we use. Providing information alone is not enough - the statistical community must also ensure that the public has the means to use the information provided and convert it into knowledge.
Second, with respect to politics:
If the statistics are good, politicians are generally quick to claim the credit and attribute the good results to the good policies which they have implemented. However, if the statistics are bad, politicians are generally quick to blame the statisticians. If I have a budget surplus although a deficit was forecast, it is because I am a fantastic finance minister. If I have a deficit although a surplus was forecast, I can usually get away with blaming it on a reinterpretation by Eurostat of some obscure rules on deficit and debt computations. The temptation to act in this way is immense. However, acting in this way is also immensely irresponsible. In fact, by contributing to undermine the credibility of and confidence in the European statistical system, we are in fact undermining the smooth functioning of the democratic process. As politicians and policymakers, we are well-advised to unconditionally support initiatives that enhance statistical governance and the integrity of the statistical system, while providing the framework conditions for the production of high-frequency, timely, accurate, reliable and independent statistics.
During the first half of the current decade, the European statistical system has gone through a difficult period. In 2003, the Eurostat crisis erupted. In 2004, another big blow was dealt to European statistics in the wake of the "Greek tragedy". However, under the inspired guidance of Commissioners Solbes and Almunia and under the competent stewardship of its successive directors-general, order has been restored. A fundamental reform of the European statistical System has taken place and I am proud to point out that during the Luxembourg presidency in the first half of 2005, significant progress was made towards to adoption of a European Code of Best Practice on statistics.
The integrity and credibility of the European statistical system and its responsiveness to social and economic change are important elements for the evaluation of the effectiveness and efficiency of public policies and they are also key ingredients for an informed debate and democratic accountability. The world of statistics and the world of politics are jointly responsible - each one in their own sphere of influence - that these desirable objectives are achieved and that in the public debate, statistics are not used anymore in the same way than the drunken man uses the lamppost: for support rather than illumination.
I wish you a successful conference!